This is a good argument; I mostly agree, especially re: risks of escalation. But I think I'll take the other side of this bet anyhow.
The key difference is that there are no boots on the ground this time by either Israel or the United States. The approach is way more hands-off against a weak regime (since they are basically at Israeli mercy at this point), and popular dissatisfaction is widespread. I’m not saying regime change is guaranteed to work out, but I do think the odds of a collapse driven by internal pressure, rather than imposed externally, feel a lot higher this time.
But with the military capacities at work with the US on Netanyahu's side, even if the collapse were to start from internal pressure, I think it would also result in a similar project from Israel to what we're seeing in Gaza. Unfortunately, with this much impunity from the international crowd, Israel will take any chance to perpetuate the violence, and might succeed with the US' help and support.
This is a good argument; I mostly agree, especially re: risks of escalation. But I think I'll take the other side of this bet anyhow.
The key difference is that there are no boots on the ground this time by either Israel or the United States. The approach is way more hands-off against a weak regime (since they are basically at Israeli mercy at this point), and popular dissatisfaction is widespread. I’m not saying regime change is guaranteed to work out, but I do think the odds of a collapse driven by internal pressure, rather than imposed externally, feel a lot higher this time.
But with the military capacities at work with the US on Netanyahu's side, even if the collapse were to start from internal pressure, I think it would also result in a similar project from Israel to what we're seeing in Gaza. Unfortunately, with this much impunity from the international crowd, Israel will take any chance to perpetuate the violence, and might succeed with the US' help and support.